尽管中东出口恢复，油价仍上涨

Oil Prices Rise Despite Middle East Export Recovery | OilPrice.com

Reports about recovering oil flows in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have dominated headlines over the past couple of weeks. Yet oil prices have only moved higher, suggesting barrel numbers alone are not enough to convince the world everything’s back to normal. It isn’t.

According to the latest Kpler numbers, October oil exports out of the Middle East in total are in fact higher than they were before the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran at the end of February. Flows out of the Strait of Hormuz alone have averaged 11.7 million barrels daily this month, Kpler estimated, up from 9.8 million barrels daily in September, and close to the pre-war average of 14.5 million barrels daily in February, Reuters’ Ron Bousso reported .

However, these numbers are the product of a lot of effort, expenditure, and risk—because the reports of rebounding oil exports out of the Persian Gulf are not the only news out of the region. The other big development there is Iran’s intensification of strikes on tankers. According to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps statements, at least 25 ships were hit in Hormuz in the first 20 days of October. Yet, outlets tracking these incidents note that many do not report if they get attacked, for various reasons, which suggests the number could be higher—as high as 40-50 vessels. Most of these are tankers.

Meanwhile, Kpler itself reported a sharp drop in tanker traffic via Hormuz this month as a result of the strikes. “Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from a wartime high the week before, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day,” two Kpler analysts reported in early October, as the firm counted only seven commodity carriers traversing the strait on October 6th. This was the lowest figure since late July, the analysts said.

Further, Reuters earlier this week reported at least 18 tanker attacks over just the last two weeks, based on data from Kpler. The firm reported earlier this week that the daily average flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf had shrunk to 8.5 million barrels, from “more than 20 million barrels daily” for two weeks ago. This is quite a sharp and deep drop in export rates.

This sort of conflicting data from the same sources does not really contribute to a sense of security about oil supply from the Middle East, especially when the reports about strikes on tankers continue at a steady trickle. Meanwhile, a lot of the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf is doing so via ship-to-ship transfers that have pushed freight rates to record highs and kept them there. This has become such a serious problem that President Trump was said to be considering lifting sanctions on some tankers used to transport Russian oil to alleviate a shortage of oil carriers due to the expansion in STS off the coast of Oman.

That will not help, however. Because the supply of so-called shadow fleet tankers is also limited—because they are busy carrying that sanctioned oil. “Sanctions relief does not equal immediately usable mainstream tanker capacity,” Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research for S&P Global Energy, said as quoted by Bloomberg earlier this week. “The number of vessels that could realistically migrate back into mainstream trading would likely be materially smaller than the overall sanctioned fleet.”

With all these factors at play, and with the chance of a peace deal between the United States and Iran as remote today as it was three months ago, it is hardly a wonder that prices are moving higher—at least on the futures market. In the physical market, prices are actually down, Bloomberg reported this week. The reasons: that notorious rebound in Hormuz outflows, despite the tanker attacks, and a slight dip in tanker rates, which is a very welcome development.

“There’s still plenty of headline risk at play. Oil stocks are quite low and it’s difficult to see them rebuilding given current dynamics,” a senior commodity analyst at Marex told Bloomberg. Ryan Fitzmaurice added that there was still hope for lower heating demand this winter, if El Niño lives up to expectations. Lower heating demand, in turn, would bring some relief to prices. Betting on the weather, however, is not the soundest strategy, which is why chances are prices will remain elevated until at least the end of the year.

What the latest developments in the Middle East have shown is that there is always a workaround, even for a severe problem such as the closure of Hormuz—but these workarounds come at a price and are not a replacement for business as usual. One way or another, the world is adapting to this new situation in energy security. It has no other choice, really.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• U.S. Partner in Venezuela Oil Deal Looks to Hike Crude Production
• U.S. Diesel at $6.30 a Gallon as First Russian Cargo Sets Sail for New York
• Oil India Strikes Natural Gas in Shallow Offshore Basin