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Record Tanker Rates Cripple U.S. Crude Oil Flows to Asia | OilPrice.com

The Iran war has made oil tanker voyages so inefficient that vessel availability has crumbled and freight costs have soared to record-highs, all but erasing the incentive for shipping crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia.

The cost of shipping crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China soared to as high as $80 million earlier this month. That’s ten times the average tanker rates that had held for years before the Iran war.

Freight rates have eased from the record highs seen in early October, but they were still about $60 million for a supertanker to carry oil from the U.S. to Asia this week. The cost is so high that Asian refiners aren’t ordering much crude from the U.S. for November delivery.

So far this month, Asian refiner orders for U.S. crude have plunged by about 50% from September, to about 25 million barrels that would be delivered in November, anonymous traders familiar with the purchasing told Bloomberg .

If orders remain so low for the rest of this monthly trading cycle, Asia could receive in November its lowest volumes of U.S. crude oil in seven years, according to vessel-tracking analysts.

U.S. crude oil and petroleum exports surged to a record high in the early weeks of the Middle East war. But the conflict and attempts by Middle Eastern producers to move oil out of the Strait of Hormuz broke the global tanker market and added a shipping crisis on top of the oil supply and fuel crises.

The Iran war has reshuffled trade routes and patterns and tied up more tankers in inefficient and lengthy voyages.

The increased flows of oil from the Strait of Hormuz, mostly thanks to ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman, are tying up supertankers for weeks waiting for the transfers outside the Strait, limiting the availability of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) for the other global key oil trade routes, such as the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia.

The Gulf of Oman shuttle fleet has expanded to about 80 VLCCs. However, the average round-voyage times have reached 23 days, more than double the optimal 9–10 days for a round trip from Basrah in Iraq to Sohar offshore Oman, according to Kpler.

Moreover, record rates to ship crude out of the Persian Gulf and from the Gulf of Oman are luring tankers to the risky but very lucrative Middle East trade, leaving the market short on vessels elsewhere.

Freight rates are now the main story on the market, Randy Hawkins, Vice President, International Crude Oil Supply and Trading at Valero Energy, said on the U.S. refiner’s earnings call this week.

“The cost to move a VLCC from the Gulf Coast to Asia is now averaging around 30 to $35 per barrel. That compares with the 2025 average of around $5 a barrel,” Hawkins said.

The freight cost surge is “causing severe dislocations in our global crude pricing as refiners seek to find barrels that are closer to home and sellers are forced to discount barrels to account for the freight cost.”

Asian buyers are turning to more Middle East crude, but they are buying on a delivered basis to reduce costs.

In Europe, refiners are opting for nearby volumes within the region, due to the spike in tanker rates.

The higher demand for European and Middle Eastern crude is pushing up the premiums on some grades. The Dated Brent benchmark was at a record $20 per barrel premium to Brent last week. Norway’s medium sour crude Johan Sverdrup has hit a record $24 per barrel premium to Brent, according to Wood Mackenzie data.

African and U.S. crudes, on the other hand, have seen premiums tumbling and discounts widening due to the high freight costs to ship these volumes on long voyages to Asia. West African crude prices have slumped to record-low discounts, with some grades down to minus $20 per barrel to offset the high shipping costs.

In the U.S. market, the premium of WTI at the Midland East Houston (MEH) hub has slumped to $0.25 a barrel above WTI, from over $3 per barrel premium in early September, per estimates by Link Data Services cited by Bloomberg.

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico’s medium-sour Mars crude, similar to many Middle Eastern grades, saw its premium tumble to $6 a barrel, down from $17.50 at the end of March.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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