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Europe Braces for a Winter Energy Crisis as Gas Reserves Run Low | OilPrice.com

After months of elevated energy prices, Europe can expect fuel costs to continue rising through the winter months as demand grows. Ongoing energy trade constraints and threats to energy infrastructure across the Middle East are expected to limit global energy supplies and continue to drive up prices, hitting consumers hard unless governments intervene.

The European Union (EU) is thought to have paid an additional €100 billion on oil and gas so far this year, prompting EU ministers to seek ways to manage the impact of high fuel prices. Since 2022, the extra costs of energy have surpassed €900 billion , even as total demand has fallen. The price of natural gas in Europe has more than doubled since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli-led war in Iran. This winter could be the most challenging in terms of energy supplies and prices since the start of Russia's war on Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russian energy.

Meanwhile, EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen has warned that the winter months could be challenging amid “very high” oil and gas prices, although he reassured consumers that no supply issues are expected. Jorgensen also proposed postponing the introduction of rules to reduce methane emissions on energy imports to help ease pressure on European energy markets.

Gas storage has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. In September, across Europe, gas storage stood at around 67 per cent full , compared with a seasonal average of around 80 per cent. Germany, which has the largest storage capacity in Europe, is roughly half full, and is expected to miss its official 80 per cent storage target this year.

Meanwhile, constrained supplies due to strict limits on energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply driven up energy prices. Oil prices increased by 65 per cent, diesel by 45 per cent, and jet fuel by 112 per cent between 25 September 2025 and 2026. This has led the European Commission to call for consumers to reduce their demand throughout the year to manage supplies.

As Europe heads into its high-demand winter months, there is no end to the war in Iran in sight. In addition, the El Niño weather cycle is expected to add an element of uncertainty to weather trends, which could further complicate the gas demand picture. Threats remain to fuel shipments traversing the Strait of Hormuz, as well as ongoing threats to energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and against pipelines continue to be a concern. Therefore, there are likely to be restrictions on global oil trade well into 2027.

The United States has focused on increasing oil and gas production to help alleviate some of the energy supply chain constraints, but this can only partly fill the gap. Atlantic and Pacific freight rates have returned to pre-Iran war levels, as a larger share of cargoes from the United States is heading to Europe rather than Asia, thereby reducing travel distances and increasing ship availability.

The independent LNG and shipping analyst Pratiksha Negi stated , “The growing share of Atlantic trade, combined with an increasing pool of prompt vessels, will continue to pressure freight rates… I expect Europe to remain the principal destination for marginal U.S. LNG at the start of Q4 2026, given the significant storage deficit this season.” Negi also highlighted the rise in newbuild deliveries, with roughly 55 new vessels delivered in the first seven months of the year and another 40-45 expected by the end of the year.

Across Europe, it is not only households that are concerned about their energy bills, as several industries prepare for fuel shortages. Higher fuel prices are driving up operating costs in factories and other facilities, which could lead companies to charge more for manufactured goods, as costs will once again shift to consumers. Meanwhile, companies that cannot secure or afford adequate fuel supplies may be forced to suspend operations in the winter, leading to job cuts.

A recent forecast by the Item Club suggested that in the United Kingdom, as many as 163,000 jobs could be lost in 2026 in relation to the war, mainly in manufacturing-heavy regions such as South Wales and the Humber region. As one of Europe’s biggest gas consumers, the U.K. is highly exposed to trade restrictions, particularly because it has one of the lowest levels of domestic storage capacity, which means it relies heavily on pipeline imports from Europe and tankers from the U.S. and the Middle East. The CEO of British Gas owner Centrica, Chris O’Shea, said in August that Britain had “almost no gas in storage” for the coming winter.

Both households and businesses across Europe could be hit hard this winter by the continued constraints on oil and gas supplies and high energy prices. This could force consumers to ration their consumption and may prompt the European Commission and governments to intervene to ensure consumers have access to vital energy supplies.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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