宗教左翼向红州保守派发起攻势
The religious left makes a play for red-state conservatives
Axios
以下为原文逐段中文翻译，保留图表与说明。AI 翻译并经 AI 对照复核，仍可能存在错误；核对数据和引用时请同时查看原文。译文发布：2026年10月24日 00:45（北京时间）。
在一对深红州，民主党人正通过将他们的基督教信仰置于竞选活动的核心，来检验宗教右翼的主导地位——这有可能为该党在与类似难以攻克的地区竞争提供一套模板。
为何重要：得州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）和堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）爆冷获胜，几乎可以确保民主党拿下参议院。
皮尤（Pew）最近的一项民调显示出既有机遇也有障碍：白人福音派仍然强烈支持共和党，而许多其他基督徒群体则倾向民主党，或分化得更为不明。
大局观：塔拉里科是一名长老会神学院学生，汉密尔顿是一名联合卫理公会牧师，他们正在挑战保守派自称代表信仰的论断。他们的参选发生在民主党人拉斐尔·沃诺克——埃比尼泽浸信会的高级牧师——于2021年当选参议员之后。
特朗普总统在2024年以两位数优势赢得了得州和堪萨斯州。两个州在本世纪都未曾向参议院派出过民主党人——堪萨斯州上一次这样做还是在1932年。今年的两场竞选都被视为势均力敌。
聚焦：塔拉里科的“虔诚信仰是柔化其自由主义立场的一种方式”，并可能赢得那些被其丑闻缠身的对手所疏远的基督徒，休斯顿公共媒体（Houston Public Media）“党派政治”（Party Politics）节目的联合主持人布兰登·罗廷豪斯（Brandon Rottinghaus）表示。
塔拉里科还多次走访黑人浸信会教堂。特朗普在得州的少数族裔社区取得了进展，而塔拉里科在残酷的初选中击败了黑人众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特（Jasmine Crockett，得州民主党人）后，也希望取得同样的效果。
他在宣传中援引圣经中的竞选口号“是时候开始掀翻桌子了”，利用经文来反对基督教民族主义并主张保护弱势群体。
“我们正处于一个民粹主义政治时刻，社会福音的许多教义给了他将政治与信仰结合起来的机会，”罗廷豪斯补充道。
数据看：9月马里斯特（Marist）对1,139名得州登记选民的调查显示，在白人福音派基督徒中，帕克斯顿（Paxton）以75%对22%领先塔拉里科。
在堪萨斯州，这场竞选的关键在于汉密尔顿能否复制民主党州长劳拉·凯利（Laura Kelly）的联盟，而不是他能否赢得大量信仰宗教的共和党人，威奇托州立大学政治学系主任亚历山德拉·米德尔伍德（Alexandra Middlewood）表示。
汉密尔顿以建设桥梁者自居，借鉴了他领导全国最大的联合卫理公会教堂的经验。
米德尔伍德表示，他众所周知的宗教背景可能吸引那些不太活跃、温和的基督徒和中间偏右的选民。
然而：尽管堪萨斯州曾选举出蓝州州长，并在州内投票保留堕胎合法化，但共和党在登记上拥有巨大优势，使得民主党赢得参议院席位“几乎不可能”，沃本（Washburn）大学政治学主任鲍勃·比蒂（Bob Beatty）指出。
他说，建制派民主党人长期以来受到怀疑，尤其是在堪萨斯州西部。
但作为一名牧师，汉密尔顿“为他打开了一扇门，得以接触堪萨斯州西部的那些选民，而我认为之前的民主党人并没有这扇门。”
放大视角：包括沃诺克在内的黑人神职人员有着从政行动的历史。但白人神职人员正大量站出来以民主党人身份参选。
在爱荷华州，路德会牧师莎拉·特罗恩·加里奥特（Sarah Trone Garriott）和长老会牧师林赛·詹姆斯（Lindsay James）正在势均力敌的众议院竞选中角逐。
道格·帕吉特（Doug Pagitt）牧师是进步基督教团体“投票共善”（Vote Common Good）的执行董事，他表示宗教左翼的兴起源于候选人的个人信念，以及像他所在的团体那样多年来培训政治家如何与信仰选民建立联系的努力。
但特朗普——帕吉特称其多次冒犯基督徒——也是一个推动因素：“目前没有任何一个人比唐纳德·特朗普更能帮助民主党接触宗教人士。他是最好的招募工具。”
然而：特朗普多次打破了宗教右翼不会投票给他的预测。
另一方观点：保守派“信仰与自由联盟”（Faith and Freedom Coalition）主席拉尔夫·里德（Ralph Reed）告诉Axios，他怀疑民主党借助宗教的努力会吸引信仰选民。
“选民不会投票给一个自称秉持其信仰、却不认同其价值观的候选人，”他说。
一名共和党对手将参选公职的牧师民主党人称为“PINOs”——名义上的牧师（Pastors in Name Only）。
但尽管里德表示，在特朗普的战场州闪电竞选之后，他相信共和党人会出来投票，他也承认他们面临经济困境。
“福音派和其他信仰上的保守派选民，他们也生活在现实世界中，”他说。
福音派是否有动力出来投票，将成为中期选举的一大看点，约翰·C·丹福斯宗教与政治中心（John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics）的瑞安·伯格（Ryan Burge）表示。
另一个看点将是天主教徒的转变：“如果像亚当·汉密尔顿、詹姆斯·塔拉里科这样的人能够赢得人心，那将会是……关系疏离的天主教徒，”伯格预测道。
底线：宗教左翼出现了一场明确的运动——但问题在于选民是否会加入其中。
深入了解：2026年有大量白人神职人员以民主党人身份参选，人数“惊人”。
展开英文原文 · 与中文逐段对应
The religious left makes a play for red-state conservatives
Democrats in a pair of deep-red states are testing the religious right's dominance by putting their Christian faith at the center of their campaigns — potentially creating a template for the party to compete in similarly forbidding terrain.
Why it matters: Upsets by Texas' James Talarico and Kansas' Adam Hamilton would all but ensure that Democrats take the Senate.
A recent poll from Pew shows both an opening and an obstacle: White evangelicals still strongly favor Republicans, while many other Christian groups lean Democratic or are more narrowly split.
The big picture: Talarico, a Presbyterian seminary student, and Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, are challenging conservatives' claim to speak for faith. Their bids come after Democrat Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, was elected to the Senate in 2021.
President Trump won both Texas and Kansas by double digits in 2024. Neither state has sent a Democrat to the Senate in the 21st century — the last time Kansas did was in 1932. Both races this year are considered toss-ups.
Zoom in: Talarico's "religiosity is a way to soften his liberalism" and potentially win over Christians turned off by his scandal-plagued opponent, says Brandon Rottinghaus, who co-hosts Houston Public Media's "Party Politics."
Talarico has also made several visits to Black Baptist churches. Trump made inroads with minority communities in Texas, and Talarico looks to do the same after besting Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who is Black, in a brutal primary.
He's harnessed scripture in his pitch against Christian nationalism and for protecting the vulnerable, invoking the biblical campaign slogan, "It's time to start flipping tables."
"We're in a populist political moment, and many of the teachings of the social gospel give him an opportunity to link the politics and his faith together," Rottinghaus adds.
By the numbers: A September Marist survey of 1,139 Texas registered voters showed Paxton with a 75% to 22% lead over Talarico among white evangelical Christians.
In Kansas, the race will hinge less on whether Hamilton can win large numbers of religious Republicans and more on whether he can replicate Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's coalition, says Alexandra Middlewood, the political science department chair at Wichita State University.
Hamilton has presented himself as a bridge-builder, drawing on his experience leading the largest United Methodist church in the nation.
His well-known religious background could appeal to less engaged, moderate Christians and center-right voters, Middlewood says.
Yes, but: While Kansas has elected blue governors and voted to keep abortion legal in the state, Republicans have a massive registration advantage that's made a Democratic Senate win "near impossible," notes Bob Beatty, Washburn University's political science chair.
Establishment Democrats have long been viewed with suspicion, especially in western Kansas, he said.
But Hamilton being a pastor "gives him an open doorway to approach those voters in western Kansas that I would argue previous Democrats have not had."
Zoom out: Black clergy — including Warnock — have a history of political action. But white clergy are stepping up to run as Democrats in substantial numbers.
In Iowa, Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister, and Lindsay James, a Presbyterian pastor, are running in tight House races.
Pastor Doug Pagitt, executive director of progressive Christian group Vote Common Good, says the religious left's surge is driven by candidates' personal convictions and years-long efforts from groups like his that have trained politicians on how to connect with faith voters.
But Trump, who Pagitt says has repeatedly offended Christians, is also a motivator: "There is no single person who could be more helpful to Democrats reaching out to religious people right now than Donald Trump. He is the greatest recruiting tool."
Yes, but: Trump has repeatedly defied predictions that the religious right wouldn't vote for him.
The other side: Ralph Reed, chair of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition, tells Axios he's doubtful the Democrats' effort to lean into religion will attract voters of faith.
"Voters will not vote for a candidate who professes to hold to their faith, but doesn't share their values," he says.
One GOP opponent labeled clergy running for office as Democrats "PINOs" — Pastors in Name Only.
But while Reed says he's confident Republicans will turn out after Trump's battleground blitz, he acknowledges their economic struggles.
"Evangelicals and other conservative voters of faith, they live in the real world too," he says.
Whether evangelicals are motivated to show up will be a major story of the midterms, says Ryan Burge of the John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics.
The other will be how Catholics shift: "If the Adam Hamiltons, the James Talaricos of the world can win over people, it's going to be ... marginally attached Catholics," Burge predicts.
The bottom line: There's a clear movement on the religious left — but the question remains whether voters will join it.
Go deeper: "Shocking" number of white clergy run as Democrats in 2026
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这件事
得州神学院学生塔拉里科与堪州卫理公会牧师汉密尔顿，将基督教信仰置于竞选核心，挑战保守派对「信仰话语权」的垄断。两人若爆冷胜出，几乎可确保民主党重夺参议院，目前两场均被视为势均力敌的摇摆战。
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据Axios报道，由本站译为全文中文。
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