界外OUTSIDE
搜索⌘ K
AI 中文全文 · 非官方译文

共和党延续数十年的连胜纪录突然面临威胁

Decades-old GOP winning streaks are suddenly at risk

Axios 原文发布:2026年10月18日 20:10 · 北京时间

Axios

以下为原文逐段中文翻译,保留图表与说明。AI 翻译并经 AI 对照复核,仍可能存在错误;核对数据和引用时请同时查看原文。译文发布:2026年10月18日 20:42(北京时间)。

在本轮中期选举周期中,民主党在全国各地传统上的共和党地盘上,展开了出人意料地具有竞争力的竞选,这让共和党一些可追溯至20世纪30年代、延续至今的连胜纪录面临风险。

为何重要:民主党希望终结在堪萨斯、得克萨斯和南卡罗来纳等州的政治干旱期,将有助于他们在长期被视为禁区的地盘取得突破。

堪萨斯——1932年

共和党籍堪萨斯州联邦参议员罗杰·马歇尔正面临民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿出人意料的强劲挑战,后者是一名卫理公会牧师,其筹款额已大幅超过这位现任共和党参议员。

两人在民调中势均力敌,而《库克政治报告》将该场竞选列为"胜负难料"。

自乔治·麦吉尔于1932年连任以来,民主党人再未赢得过堪萨斯州的美国参议院席位。

得克萨斯——1988年

民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科在参议院竞选中,给得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿(共和党)制造了真正的麻烦。塔拉里科在民调中普遍以个位数低位的优势领先。库克将其列为胜负难料。

在最近的选举周期中,得克萨斯一直是让民主党人屡屡心碎的州。他们上一次在该州赢得参议院席位,还要追溯到1988年的劳埃德·本特森。

南卡罗来纳——1998年

民调一直显示,共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆仅以几个百分点的微弱优势领先民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯。达琳·格雷厄姆是在其兄林赛·格雷厄姆于今年7月去世后被任命,以接替其职位的。

与民主党其他参议院候选人一样,安德鲁斯筹集了巨额资金,而格雷厄姆作为政治新秀则举步维艰。尽管如此,库克将该场竞选评为"可能共和党获胜"。

自资深民主党人弗里茨·霍林斯于1998年最后一次连任以来,该州在每次美国参议院选举中都倒向了共和党。

深层解读:民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊若在下个月击败缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯,将成为自1988年以来首位赢得缅因州美国参议院席位的登记民主党人。

这有点像是技术细节上的说法:无党籍参议员安格斯·金自2012年首次当选以来,一直与民主党党团合作。

州长竞选

自安·理查兹于1990年当选以来,得克萨斯州再未选出过民主党州长,但民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨正与共和党现任州长格雷格·阿博特陷入胶着竞争,库克将其评为"倾向共和党"。

民主党人大卫·贾利也希望爆冷击败共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳兹,库克将这场竞选同样评为"倾向共和党"。民主党在1994年以微弱优势赢得佛罗里达州长之位后,此后再未获胜。

佐治亚州的凯莎·兰斯·巴托姆斯和阿拉斯加州的乔纳森·克赖斯-汤普金斯都力争成为自1998年以来各自州当选的首位民主党州长。库克将佐治亚评为胜负难料,将阿拉斯加评为"倾向民主党"。

众议院竞选

民主党从未赢得过内华达州第2国会选区,该选区设立于1983年。其范围随时间有所变动,但一直以该州北半部的农村地区为重心。

民主党人认为,他们拥有前州众议院多数党领袖特雷莎·贝尼特斯-汤普森这样一位强有力的候选人,而对手前空军中校戴夫·弗利波则较为薄弱。

该党还对蒙大拿州第1国会选区持乐观态度,希望前空降森林消防员萨姆·福尔斯塔格的平民主义号召力,能帮助他击败共和党提名人、退伍军人和电台主持人亚伦·弗林特。自1994年以来,民主党人再未赢得过蒙大拿州的美国众议院席位。

库克将内华达州第2选区评为"可能共和党获胜",将蒙大拿州第1选区评为胜负难料。

另一方面:共和党在少数几场他们已很久未获胜的竞选中,同样具有竞争力。

共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯在密歇根州与民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德陷入胶着的美国参议院竞选。若当选,他将成为自1994年共和党浪潮以来,首位从该州当选进入参议院的共和党人。

民主党人、俄勒冈州州长蒂娜·科泰克与共和党人克里斯汀·德拉赞陷入势均力敌的竞选,后者若当选,将成为自1982年以来首位当选该州州长的共和党人。

俄勒冈基本上就是共和党版的得克萨斯:自2002年以来,共和党在州长选举中均以个位数差距落败。

展开英文原文 · 与中文逐段对应

Decades-old GOP winning streaks are suddenly at risk

Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle, and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s.

Why it matters: Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory.

Kansas - 1932

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who has significantly outraised the incumbent GOP senator.

The two are neck-and-neck in the polls, and Cook Political Report rates the race a tossup.

A Democrat hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since George McGill was reelected in 1932.

Texas - 1988

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is giving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) a real run for his money in the Senate race. Talarico generally leads in polls by low single digits. Cook rates it a tossup.

Texas has been a consistent heartbreaker for Democrats in recent cycles. They last won a Senate seat in the state with Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.

South Carolina - 1998

Polls have routinely shown Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham following his death in July, leading Democrat Annie Andrews by just a few percentage points.

Andrews, like other Democratic Senate candidates, has raised colossal sums, while Graham has struggled as a political neophyte. Still, Cook rates the race as "likely Republican."

The state has gone Republican in every U.S. Senate election since longtime Democrat Fritz Hollings was last reelected in 1998.

Between the lines: Democrat Troy Jackson, if he defeats Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine next month, would be the first registered Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Maine since 1988.

That's a bit of a technicality: Independent Sen. Angus King has caucused with Democrats since he was first elected in 2012.

Gubernatorial races

Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990, but Democrat Gina Hinojosa is in a tight race with Republican incumbent Greg Abbott that Cook rates as "leans Republican."

Democrat David Jolly is also hoping for an upset against GOP Rep. Byron Donalds in a race Cook also rates as "leans Republican." Democrats narrowly won the Florida governorship in 1994 and have lost ever since.

Georgia's Keisha Lance Bottoms and Alaska's Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins are both vying to be the first Democrats elected governor in their states since 1998. Cook rates Georgia as a tossup and Alaska as "leans Democratic."

House races

Democrats have never won Nevada's 2nd District, which was created in 1983. It has changed shape over time but has always been anchored in the rural north half of the state.

Democrats feel they have a strong candidate in former state Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson and a weak opponent in former Air Force lieutenant colonel Dave Flippo.

The party is also bullish about Montana's 1st District, where they hope the populist appeal of former smokejumper Sam Forstag will help him prevail over the GOP nominee Aaron Flint, a veteran and radio host. Democrats haven't won a U.S. House seat in Montana since 1994.

Cook rates Nevada's 2nd Distric as "likely Republican" and Montana's 1st District as a tossup.

The other side: Republicans are also competitive in a handful of races where they haven't won in quite a while.

Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers is locked in a tight U.S. Senate race in Michigan with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. He would be the first Republican elected to the Senate from the state since the 1994 GOP wave.

Democratic Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek faces a close race with Republican Christine Drazan, who would be the first Republican elected governor of the state since 1982.

Oregon is essentially the GOP's version of Texas: Republicans have lost by single digits in gubernatorial elections since 2002.

查看本期独立摘要

这件事

距中期选举,民主党在传统共和党地盘意外打出竞争选情,威胁到可追溯至1930年代的连胜纪录。堪萨斯参议员马歇尔被牧师汉密尔顿紧追、民调持平;得州总检察长帕克斯顿面对塔拉里科的挑战,《库克政治报告》评为“tossup”;南卡任命接任的格雷厄姆仅领先几个百分点。缅因、佛州、佐治亚、阿拉斯加、内华达、蒙大拿的参众议员与州长选情亦现突破迹象。

本页概括所列来源的重点,属于独立摘要;完整报道请阅读原站。整理时间:2026年10月18日 20:51(北京时间)。

TRACE THE SOURCE

信息从哪里来

依据Axios报道,选情评级引述《库克政治报告》。

← 回到本期精选阅读来源原文