发电厂袭击反映出俄罗斯让乌克兰城市无法居住的蓝图

Power plant attacks reflect Russian blueprint to make Ukrainian cities unlivable

As Russian missiles and drones have systematically slammed into power plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv this week, the rolling blackouts and water outages have increasingly resembled a supposed Russian blueprint to destroy life in major Ukrainian cities seen by the Guardian.

Even as Donald Trump unilaterally declared an “energy ceasefire” last week between Moscow and Kyiv, Russia continued with its methodical and devastating strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, in particular in Kyiv, in a strategy meant to punish Ukraine’s population and drive the country to capitulation.

The potential goals of the Russian campaign, according to an assessment seen by the Guardian that Ukrainian intelligence said it intercepted from Russia last month, range from “degrading the quality of life” of Ukrainians through power outages to fully shutting off the water supply, which the document cooly predicts would cause the “deterioration of sanitary conditions and the forced outflow of residents from cities.”

The document does not specify which Russian agency developed the assessment, which is titled Analysis of Ukraine’s Energy, Housing and Utilities Sectors, includes vulnerable Ukrainian energy grid targets and even contemplates strikes against high-risk sites, including the switchyards at several nuclear power plants. But several European officials familiar with the document have said it is likely to have been produced by analytical departments linked to the Russian military or intelligence agencies, and that copies have circulated in Ukraine in previous years.

This year, however, Russia appears to be putting those plans into practice. On Tuesday night, Russian strikes hit three major power plants in the Kyiv region – Combined Heat and Power Plants 4 and 5, and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in the Kyiv region – as well as a major electrical substation that transfers electricity from two of the country’s main nuclear power plants to the capital. Those, along with other substations that make up the “Kyiv energy ring” that helps bring electricity from across the country to the capital, have all been targets of a Russian barrage that, if it succeeds, could threaten a humanitarian catastrophe in a city of 3 million people.

Ukraine’s energy minister first briefed European allies last month about the plan, a copy of which was first reported on by the New York Times. Russia has stepped up its attacks on the Ukrainian power grid precisely as Washington and Kyiv are embroiled in a major political quarrel. The Guardian is withholding some specifics of the military assessment at the request of Ukraine’s energy ministry, which said it could aid in further strikes against the country.

“There are two large documents, written very coldly and very clearly, with tables showing the number of weapons needed for each facility to destroy it,” Ukrainian energy minister Denys Shmyhal said last month. “The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones. We understand how they are going to act.”

The leaked documents identify bottlenecks and prescribe the number of ballistic and hypersonic cruise missiles and jet-powered drones needed to knock out power plants and substations with brutal efficiency. If that was done, it could destroy more than 90% of the power that Kyiv is budgeted for each winter, the document predicts, plunging the city into the dark and cold. A worst-case scenario could lead to blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day until damaged equipment is repaired, according to expert projections.

The strikes on Ukraine’s energy system have become the country’s new frontlines – and the country is badly outgunned, as its stocks of US-provided PAC-3 missiles have dwindled. Zelenskyy this week castigated city authorities for poor planning for the winter and for failing to protect the city’s energy infrastructure. Protests over heat and electricity blackouts are also planned for Saturday, highlighting how the difficult conditions in winter could provoke a political crisis for the wartime government.

Economic Pravda, a leading Ukrainian news site that covers business, reported on Thursday that the three major power plants in Kyiv no longer have the ability to generate electricity, leaving the city more reliant on electricity brought from elsewhere in the country (the government generally does not confirm specific damage to critical infrastructure). The outlets’ experts predicted that, given a moderate winter and quick repairs of damaged substations, Kyiv residents could face up to eight hours of blackouts a day. Its worst case scenario of frigid temperatures and frequent attacks would leave Kyiv in the dark for up to 20 hours a day.

This is no accident for the Kremlin, which has increasingly turned to punishing Ukraine’s population in major cities as the frontlines of the conflict have frozen. “Last year, we were really on the brink,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst. “But the risk this year will be even worse, so the plan [to attack Ukrainian infrastructure] does seem realistic. There’s a very high chance that Russia tries to break us this winter.” If the Kremlin believed in the chance of a clean military victory before now, he added, it may now believe that not to be possible, and focus on destroying Ukraine’s remaining infrastructure rather than trying to capture it.

The secret plan, which officials here say was intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence and then briefed to senior European diplomats by Shmyhal last month, sets itself several goals: to destroy electricity generation, heating, water and sewage systems in such a way as to to make life in Ukrainian cities unliveable. Destroying electrical generation alone, it says, would lead to a “significant decrease in the quality of life of the population.”

To do so, it specifies the number of weapons that should be allocated – Geran 4/5 jet-powered drones and hypersonic or cruise missiles – in order to destroy key infrastructure such as thermal power plants, substations, water pumping stations and more.

Considering strikes against the basis of Ukraine’s water, sewage and heating systems, the document says it would create a “large-scale municipal infrastructure crisis.”

When contacted by the Guardian, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry said that the document contained information that could aid in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. It did not reply to questions on how the current Russian bombing strategy matched with the proposals made in the document, or which Russian agency had developed the plans.