欧佩克+准备维持石油配额不变
OPEC+ Set to Keep Oil Quotas Unchanged | OilPrice.com
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以下为原文逐段中文翻译，保留图表与说明。AI 翻译并经 AI 对照复核，仍可能存在错误；核对数据和引用时请同时查看原文。译文发布：2026年10月28日 00:51（北京时间）。
据了解该计划的消息人士周二向路透社透露，管理集体石油产量的关键欧佩克+产油国预计将在周日开会时维持12月配额不变。
沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼在9月完成分阶段取消最初于2023年商定的每日165万桶（bpd）供应削减后，保持了其目标产量不变。
过去八个月，这些目标仅停留在纸面上，因为中东冲突扰乱了经霍尔木兹海峡的原油供应，迫使许多海湾产油国在春季大幅削减产量。此后，随着8月和9月经霍尔木兹的流量开始增加，并几乎达到战前水平（伊朗供应除外），许多产油国已提高了产量。
尽管过去两个月经霍尔木兹海峡的石油出口有所上升，但欧佩克+联盟中的许多海湾产油国产量仍低于各自配额。
这七个欧佩克+产油国在2026年大部分时间里都在提高月度产量配额，9月的增产完成了每日165万桶的分阶段回撤。
这些额外供应中的大部分未能在需要时进入市场。由于伊朗战争扰乱了经霍尔木兹海峡的海湾出口，而乌克兰战争打击了俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的出口，实际产量一直落后于更高的配额。
欧佩克+还有另一层减产措施，覆盖其大多数成员，将持续至2026年底。关注点现在正转向2027年的产量基准，这决定了各成员国配额的计算方式。
这一由沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯牵头的产油国集团，似乎已将重点转向关于2027年配额的辩论与讨论，该联盟计划对此进行审查，并为今后的任何削减设定基准。
本文由查尔斯·肯尼迪为Oilprice.com撰写
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OPEC+ Set to Keep Oil Quotas Unchanged | OilPrice.com
The key OPEC+ producers managing their collective oil production are expected to keep quotas unchanged for December when they meet on Sunday, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman have kept their targeted output unchanged after completing in September the phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply cuts first agreed in 2023.
These targets have been only on paper in the past eight months as the Middle East conflict disrupted crude oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, forcing many Gulf producers to slash output in the spring. Since then, many producers have raised their output as flows through Hormuz began to increase in August and September and nearly reached pre-war levels, excluding Iran’s supply.
Despite the rise in oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz in the past two months, many Gulf producers part of the OPEC+ alliance still produce below their respective quotas.
The seven OPEC+ producers have spent much of 2026 raising their monthly production quotas, with the September increase completing the phased rollback of 1.65 million bpd.
Much of that additional supply has failed to reach the market when it’s needed. Actual production has lagged the higher quotas as the Iran war disrupted Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while the war in Ukraine has hit exports from Russia and Kazakhstan.
OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts covering most of its members through the end of 2026. Attention is now turning to production baselines for 2027, which determine how individual countries’ quotas are calculated.
The producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, appears to have shifted its focus to debates and discussions about the 2027 quotas, which the alliance plans to review and set the baselines for any cuts going forward.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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这件事
OilPrice报道，OPEC+预计将在下一次会议上维持现有石油产量配额不变。在经历前期减产以支撑油价后，主要产油国倾向于保持当前政策，观察市场需求与地缘政治走势。分析认为，中东局势及成员国履约情况仍是影响油价的关键变量。维持配额若落地，将为短期油价提供底部支撑，但需求前景与替代供应仍构成压力。
本页概括所列来源的重点，属于独立摘要；完整报道请阅读原站。整理时间：2026年10月28日 00:57（北京时间）。
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据OilPrice报道，由本站译为全文中文。
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